The NFC North looks like a pretty unpredictable division.
The Chicago Bears missed the playoffs in 2012 despite a 10-6 record, and the Detroit Lions went from reaching the postseason in 2011 to flopping in 2012’s final eight games. On the other hand, Adrian Peterson and the Minnesota Vikings pulled a 180-degree turn by qualifying for the postseason after going 3-13 in 2011.
Then there’s Aaron Rodgers and the Green Bay Packers. Easily the most consistent team of the NFC North recently, the cheese heads have reached the playoffs in four consecutive years and are coming off two straight division titles.
So, will the Packers three-peat in 2013? Well, with rivals capable of immediately flipping the switch year to year let’s pick a part the black and blue division.
CHICAGO BEARS
Offense:
There is no excuse for Jay Cutler to not put up numbers this season. Chicago landed offensive tackle Jermon Bushrod in free agency, a two-time Pro Bowler, who significantly bolsters the team’s pass protection.
Factor in the presence of Brandon Marshall and Cutler’s additional time will help stretch opposing defenses. Improved blocking should pave better lanes for the running back tandem of Matt Forte and Michael Bush. Include new tight end Martellus Bennett and the Bears should be far more balanced this season.
All that remains for Chicago is to actually get it done. After ranking No. 29 in passing offense last year, Cutler was also sacked 38 times and completed just 58.8 percent of his attempts. At his core, Cutler is the guy who must minimize errors for Chicago to reach January.
Defense:
Typically known for defense, the Bears will be without Brian Urlacher as the longtime linebacker hung up the cleats in May.
Still, Chicago has plenty to be excited about in maintaining the Monsters of the Midway moniker. D.J. Williams comes aboard to fill Urlacher’s shoes and Jon Bostic was a solid draft get for depth. Other veterans such as Lance Briggs, Julius Peppers and Henry Melton remain dependable players as well.
Move to the secondary and Charles Tillman is the leader. After all, he and Chicago limited Calvin Johnson to a mere 106 yards on eight receptions (25 targets) in the team’s two matchups with the Detroit Lions in 2012. Safety Chris Conte is a technically sound player and Tim Jennings led all of pro football with nine picks last year.
Urlacher may be gone, but “Da Bears” will continue shutting down offenses at an impressive rate.
In a nutshell:
The Bears must establish the running back duo of Forte and Bush, while also giving Cutler the green light to spread the field. The defense will keep locking down, although it must prove better versus NFC elites like Seattle, San Francisco and Green Bay.
DETROIT LIONS
Offense:
Get ready to watch the Detroit Lions in 2013. Already one of pro football’s more exciting offensive attacks, Detroit welcomes Reggie Bush to the crew as a great complement to Calvin Johnson.
Quarterback Matthew Stafford now has an explosive running game to rely on, not to mention Bush’s versatility will help derive attention away from Johnson. Tight end Brandon Pettigrew can still make plays as well, and he’s also reliable when run-blocking. Mix in a perceptibly better offensive line led by second-year tackle Riley Reiff and Detroit has no excuse not to score.
The only real concern lies with Stafford’s decision-making and confidence. After tossing 17 picks a year ago and sporting a rough 59.8 completion percentage, he must learn to spread the field more. Additionally, Stafford tends to force throws which can also lead to turnovers and inaccurate attempts.
As long as the ground game finds an improved level, Stafford will become increasingly dangerous courtesy of play-action.
Defense:
Unlike their offense, the Lions look far worse defensively this season. That said, Detroit did address this side in the 2013 draft with dynamic edge players Ezekiel Ansah and Devin Taylor. It should be noted, though, that Ansah hasn’t practiced in some time according to Kyle Meinke of MLive.com:
Rookie defensive end Ezekiel Ansah attended his first Detroit Lions practice in nine days, but still has not been cleared to participate with the season opener looming Sunday.
Ansah is believed to be recovering from a head injury suffered during a practice Aug. 24.
Still, when healthy Ansah and Taylor will amp up the run defense and pass rush to help Ndamukong Suh. Given that Detroit allowed 4.5 yards per carry last year it must instantly get better.
Other decent acquisitions such as Justin Bannan and Israel Idonije help as well. Those are two reliable veterans for the front seven, which enhances Detroit’s ability to control the line of scrimmage. Now with this upgrade the Lions can expect to force more ill-advised throws and get their opponents into predictable passing situations.
All that’s left is for the secondary to capitalize accordingly. That, however, won’t be guaranteed as the Lions gave up 26 passing scores (only 11 picks) and allowed a 63.6 completion percentage last year.
In a nutshell:
The Lions have to keep the offense explosive, but can’t forget to establish a ground game. Defensively, they must let the front seven go and attempt to cause as much backfield havoc as possible to hide the unproven secondary.
GREEN BAY PACKERS
Offense:
Green Bay’s best odds of pulling the division championship hat trick will come by establishing a running game.
Aaron Rodgers was sacked 51 times last year and the Packers averaged a dismal 3.9 yards per carry. Even worse, that average would be lower had it not been for Rodgers’ mobility as he hit 4.8 per attempt. No ball-carrier with 70-plus carries averaged more than 3.6.
Fortunately the Packers have found something along the line in rookie David Bahktari. Easily one of the most underrated linemen entering the 2013 draft, Bahktari’s athleticism alone will seal the edge nicely and extend running lanes. His addition, along with fellow draft pick Eddie Lacy provides Green Bay an alternative from solely counting on Rodgers.
Greg Jennings is gone, but Jordy Nelson, Randall Cobb, James Jones and tight end Jermichael Finley remain. Nevertheless, for as reliable as each are, and for as precise as Rodgers has proven to be, Green Bay’s offense still needs that punishing ground attack to make a deep playoff run.
Defense:
Good strides were made in Titletown last season on the defensive end. After an abysmal 2011 season where Green Bay couldn’t defend anything, the Packers moved up to near average in 2012.
In 2013, we should only expect Green Bay to continue rising. Casey Hayward led the team as a rookie with six picks and Nick Perry will keep developing as Clay Matthews’ pass-rushing sidekick. Other guys to watch for are rookie Datone Jones and the return of Johnny Jolly.
One key mark in the secondary is the absence of Charles Woodson who’s now back in Oakland. For years Woodson was a pivotal playmaker in Green Bay’s secondary, so 2013 will be telling for how quickly the younger Packers adjust without the instinctive veteran back deep.
In a nutshell:
Obviously relying more on Rodgers is required, but feeding Lacy and utilizing the athleticism of Bahktari will establish balance. As for the defense, a second stud rusher must emerge to assist Matthews.
MINNESOTA VIKINGS
Offense:
Last fall was all about Adrian Peterson, and rightfully so. The man crushed the competition and single-handily carried Minnesota to the postseason. As for 2013, Peterson has been given some help around him to spruce up the passing game for balance.
We know Matt Kalil will keep blocking with ease to protect the blindside and pave rushing lanes. But don’t discount the efforts of tight end Kyle Rudolph as he’s just as reliable blocking as he is when receiving. After Rudolph, the Vikings have given quarterback Christian Ponder Greg Jennings and rookie Cordarrelle Patterson, all of whom must go beyond expectations since Percy Harvin bolted for Seattle.
Ponder now has a complete receiving corps to spread the defense and prevent a stacked box against Peterson. Ponder’s mobility and athleticism will also work here, thanks to a 62.1 completion percentage last year. He’ll make things happen out of the pocket, which should expand the threat of play-action to waggles, sprint outs and fake tosses.
Peterson will smash the trenches once again, but don’t sleep on Minnesota’s passing game this season.
Defense:
Stopping the pass was Minnesota’s weakest link in 2012. The Purple People Eaters ranked No. 24 in pass defense and gave up 28 passing scores with a 63.9 completion percentage. Plus the Vikings logged just 10 picks.
To make matters worse, long-time Viking cornerback Antoine Winfield jumped ship to Seattle (before retiring, per Pete Carroll on Twitter). Winfield led Minnesota with 12 defended passes and three interceptions (tied), while recording 101 tackles. Entering 2013 and the Vikings feature their future at corner in Josh Robinson, who snagged two picks and racked up 56 tackles as a rookie in 2012.
Florida State product Xavier Rhodes will help here as well, not to mention second-year safety Harrison Smith to react on cue in Cover 1 and Cover 3. The front seven and pass rush will maintain solid play against the run and getting pressure. Jared Allen leads the way and rookie Sharrif Floyd is a great complement to Kevin Williams to win the immediate point of attack.
In a nutshell:
The Vikings must continue feeding the beast, Adrian Peterson, on offense and let Ponder consistently work off play-action. Provided the coverage is able to generate more turnovers, Minnesota has [sleeper] Super Bowl potential.
SUMMARY
This is one division that has improved since last season. And it’s arguably the best in the NFL.
Because of Aaron Rodgers the Packers remain the favorites. He’s easily in the upper echelon of NFL signal-callers and makes every group of targets around him better. We have yet to see that from Jay Cutler, Matthew Stafford or Christian Ponder in this division.
The Bears have the best defense in the division, but age isn’t on their side like it is in Green Bay. Minnesota’s front seven is capable of taking over games, but that won’t make a difference without generating more turnovers. The same can be said for Chicago as replicating 2012’s abundance of forced turnovers won’t be easy.
Detroit’s front seven definitely has gotten stronger, but it is also unproven by comparison to Chicago and Minnesota. The Lions have plenty of potential, but the coverage remains a work in progress and the front seven will have more pressure to perform. Obviously Detroit will score, although turnovers were a concern last season as well.
In short, Green Bay is the most complete team with an elite quarterback, improved running game and offensive line. The defense has a signature rusher and enough young talent in the secondary to force turnovers.
PREDICTION
1. Green Bay Packers
2. Minnesota Vikings
3. Chicago Bears
4. Detroit Lions
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